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Correction technology of short-time solar radiation forecast based on cloud cover
DA Xuanfang, LI Zhaorong, WANG Xiaoyong, LIU Kang, DI Yanjun, YAN Xiaomin
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (06): 1006-1016.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2021)-06-1006
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Based on observed total solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and air pressure data at representative photovoltaic power stations of Gansu Province, total solar radiation data forecasted by WRF model, and total cloud cover products from FY satellite in 2019, the correlation between total solar radiation and meteorological factors was analyzed, and the prediction ability of WRF model was evaluated, firstly. And on this basis the errors of short-time solar radiation forecast were corrected. The results show that the atmospheric transmissivity was positively correlated with air temperature, and the correlation coefficient was 0.61, while it was negatively correlated with relative humidity, air pressure and total cloud cover, and the correlation coefficients were -0.44, -0.31 and -0.81 in turn. The contribution of total cloud cover to solar radiation attenuation was the most, followed by relative humidity. The deviation of solar radiation forecasted by WRF model was bigger, and the monthly distribution of forecast errors appeared ‘single peak’ pattern, the forecast errors was the biggest in June. The root mean square error (RMSE) of solar radiation forecast was the smallest in winter (45.63 W·m -2) and the biggest in summer (240.4 W·m-2). The forecast ability of WRF model was better on sunny days or partly cloudy days, while it was worse on cloudy days. The forecast errors mainly came from phase bias and system bias. The correction effect of solar radiation forecast considering cloud cover was significant, the RMSE of solar radiation forecast after correction sharply decreased by 101-216.4 W·m-2 on cloudy days, the average absolute error decreased by 59.5-173.07 W·m-2, and the RMSE decreased by 1.92-64.23 W·m-2 in summer with the maximum error.

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